A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
